Ends Between/Ends Outside: Trading the Expiry Range

Ends Between:

• You win if the Exit Spot is strictly within the High and Low Barriers
• Betting on: Consolidation at expiry (price settles inside range)
• Win condition: Low Barrier < Exit Spot < High Barrier

Ends Outside:

• You win if the Exit Spot is strictly outside the High and Low Barriers
• Betting on: Breakout sustaining until expiry (price ends beyond range)
• Win condition: Exit Spot > High Barrier OR Exit Spot < Low Barrier

Critical Distinction:

• NOT path-dependent: Price can touch or cross barriers during the trade
• Expiry-only settlement: Only the final tick (Exit Spot) matters
• If you confuse this with Stays Between/Goes Outside (path contracts), you will lose money

Path-Dependent Range Contracts:

• Stays Between/Goes Outside: Price path matters, instant settlement on barrier touch
• Win/loss determined at ANY point during contract

Expiry-Dependent Range Contracts:

• Ends Between/Ends Outside: Price path irrelevant, expiry-only settlement
• Win/loss determined ONLY at expiration

Your Advantage: With Ends Between/Ends Outside, a mid-trade spike outside your barriers is survivable. If price returns inside before expiry, Ends Between still wins. This forgiveness of intra-trade volatility is the strategic edge.

Setting the Range:

• High Barrier: Positive offset (e.g., +500 points)
• Low Barrier: Negative offset (e.g., -500 points)
• Range Width: High Barrier - Low Barrier (e.g., 1,000 points)

Example:

• Current Volatility 75: 45,000
• High Barrier offset: +500 → Barrier at 45,500
• Low Barrier offset: -500 → Barrier at 44,500
• Range width: 1,000 points (44,500 to 45,500)

Ends Between Win: The final price must land: Low Barrier < Exit Spot < High Barrier

Example (Range: 44,500 to 45,500):

• Exit Spot: 45,000 ✅ Win (inside range)
• Exit Spot: 44,501 ✅ Win (inside range)
• Exit Spot: 45,499 ✅ Win (inside range)
• Exit Spot: 45,500 ❌ Loss (equal to High Barrier)
• Exit Spot: 44,500 ❌ Loss (equal to Low Barrier)
• Exit Spot: 46,000 ❌ Loss (outside range)

Ends Outside Win: The final price must land: Exit Spot > High Barrier OR Exit Spot < Low Barrier

Example (Range: 44,500 to 45,500):

• Exit Spot: 46,000 ✅ Win (above High Barrier)
• Exit Spot: 44,000 ✅ Win (below Low Barrier)
• Exit Spot: 45,501 ✅ Win (above High Barrier)
• Exit Spot: 44,499 ✅ Win (below Low Barrier)
• Exit Spot: 45,000 ❌ Loss (inside range)
• Exit Spot: 45,500 ❌ Loss (equal to barrier)

Tie Rule (Both Contracts): If the Exit Spot is equal to either the High or Low Barrier, the trade is a loss.

✅ Ends Between Success

Price ends inside range = Win

❌ Ends Between Failure

Price ends outside range = Loss

Understanding Ends Between Predictions:

• Success: When you predict Ends Between and price settles inside the range at expiry
• Failure: When you predict Ends Between but price ends outside the range at expiry
• Expiry-Only Settlement: Only the final price at expiry matters, not the price path during the trade

✅ Ends Outside Success

Price ends outside range = Win

❌ Ends Outside Failure

Price ends inside range = Loss

Understanding Ends Outside Predictions:

• Success: When you predict Ends Outside and price settles outside the range at expiry
• Failure: When you predict Ends Outside but price ends inside the range at expiry
• Breakout Strategy: Perfect for betting on sustained breakouts that hold until expiry

Ends Between:

• Wider range = Higher probability price ends inside = Lower payout
• Narrower range = Lower probability price ends inside = Higher payout

Ends Outside:

• Wider range = Lower probability price breaks far out = Higher payout
• Narrower range = Higher probability price escapes = Lower payout

Practical Example (Volatility 75 at 45,000):

The Inverse Relationship:

• Wide range: Ends Between pays less (easier to stay in), Ends Outside pays more (harder to break far out)
• Narrow range: Ends Between pays more (harder to stay in), Ends Outside pays less (easier to escape)

For Ends Between (Consolidation Bet):

Narrow Range (High Risk/Reward):

• Width: ±200-400 points
• Use when: Very low volatility expected at expiry (end-of-session, post-spike consolidation)
• Payout: 90-130%
• Risk: High (price can easily escape narrow range)

Medium Range (Balanced):

• Width: ±500-1,000 points
• Use when: Moderate consolidation expected, normal volatility decline
• Payout: 60-85%
• Risk: Moderate (most common range for Ends Between)

Wide Range (Conservative):

• Width: ±1,500+ points
• Use when: High confidence in consolidation but want safety buffer
• Payout: 40-60%
• Risk: Low (large room for price fluctuation)

For Ends Outside (Breakout Bet):

Narrow Range (Conservative):

• Width: ±200-400 points
• Use when: High volatility expected, easy breakout anticipated
• Payout: 45-65%
• Risk: Low (easy for price to escape)

Medium Range (Balanced):

• Width: ±500-1,000 points
• Use when: Moderate breakout expected to sustain
• Payout: 85-110%
• Risk: Moderate

Wide Range (Aggressive):

• Width: ±1,500+ points
• Use when: Massive volatility event, extreme price displacement expected
• Payout: 120-180%+
• Risk: High (requires significant sustained movement)

Risk is Limited but Timing-Sensitive:

• Maximum Loss: Your stake amount only
• No margin calls: Cannot lose more than you invest
• Expiry volatility risk: Last-second price spikes are the primary danger
• Barrier equality risk: Exit Spot landing exactly on barrier = loss

Risk Factors by Contract Type:

Ends Between Risks:

1. Last-second breakout: Price stable mid-trade, then spikes at expiry
2. Narrow range risk: Setting barriers too tight, no room for error
3. Volatile index risk: High-volatility indices (V100, V75) prone to expiry spikes

Ends Outside Risks:

1. Last-second reversion: Price breaks out mid-trade, returns inside at expiry
2. Wide range risk: Setting barriers too far, price cannot reach
3. Mean reversion: Strong tendency for price to revert toward mean before expiry

Reward Varies by Range Width:

Ends Between Reward:

• Higher reward for narrow ranges (harder to stay inside)
• Range: 45-130% typical payouts
• Sweet spot: 60-80% payouts on medium ranges (balanced probability)

Ends Outside Reward:

• Higher reward for wide ranges (harder to break far outside)
• Range: 50-180% typical payouts
• Sweet spot: 90-120% payouts on medium-wide ranges

Profitability Analysis:

Key Insight: Both contracts are profitable when your win rate exceeds the implied probability. The edge comes from reading volatility conditions better than the market's calculation.

1. Consolidation at Expiry (Most Common)

Scenario: Volatility 75 has been ranging between 44,800-45,200 for 45+ minutes Analysis: Low volatility environment likely to persist until expiry Strategy:

• Contract: Ends Between
• High Barrier: 45,400 (+400 from current 45,000)
• Low Barrier: 44,600 (-400 from current 45,000)
• Duration: 15 minutes
• Logic: Range width (800 points) encompasses current consolidation zone with buffer
• Payout: 75%

2. End-of-Session Mean Reversion

Scenario: New York session closing in 20 minutes, Volatility 100 at 55,500 after volatile day Analysis: End-of-session volatility typically drops, price reverts to mean Strategy:

• Contract: Ends Between
• High Barrier: 56,000 (+500)
• Low Barrier: 55,000 (-500)
• Duration: 20 minutes (aligned with session close)
• Logic: Price will settle near mean as traders close positions
• Payout: 68%

3. Post-Spike Exhaustion

Scenario: Volatility 75 just spiked from 44,500 to 46,000 in 2 minutes (news event), now consolidating Analysis: Spike exhausted, reversion/consolidation expected Strategy:

• Contract: Ends Between
• High Barrier: 46,300 (+300 from current 46,000)
• Low Barrier: 45,700 (-300)
• Duration: 10 minutes
• Logic: Post-spike consolidation, narrow range reflects high confidence
• Payout: 95% (narrow range, high reward)

1. High-Impact Volatility Event

Scenario: NFP report in 2 minutes, Volatility 75 at 45,000 Analysis: Massive directional move expected, will sustain until expiry Strategy:

• Contract: Ends Outside
• High Barrier: 45,800 (+800)
• Low Barrier: 44,200 (-800)
• Duration: 5 minutes (post-news)
• Logic: News-driven momentum will push price well beyond range
• Payout: 105%

2. Technical Breakout from Pattern

Scenario: Volatility 100 forming triangle pattern, consolidating 54,500-55,500, breakout imminent Analysis: Breakout will be strong and sustained Strategy:

• Contract: Ends Outside
• High Barrier: 56,000 (+500 from current 55,500)
• Low Barrier: 54,000 (-500)
• Duration: 15 minutes
• Logic: Breakout momentum carries price far from consolidation zone
• Payout: 90%

3. Momentum Continuation

Scenario: Strong uptrend on Volatility 75, price at 46,000, just broke 45,500 resistance Analysis: Momentum will continue, price will not revert into original range Strategy:

• Contract: Ends Outside
• High Barrier: 45,800 (below current price)
• Low Barrier: 45,200
• Duration: 10 minutes
• Logic: Set range BELOW current price, betting momentum prevents reversion
• Payout: 75%

Step 1: Select Contract Type

• Navigate to Trade → Options → Digital Options
• In contract type dropdown, select "In/Out"
• Then select "Ends Between/Ends Outside"

Step 2: Set the High Barrier

• Locate "High barrier offset" input field
• Enter positive value (e.g., +500)
• Platform calculates: High Barrier = Current Price + 500

Step 3: Set the Low Barrier

• Locate "Low barrier offset" input field
• Enter negative value (e.g., -500)
• Platform calculates: Low Barrier = Current Price - 500
• This defines the complete price window

Step 4: Visual Verification

• Platform draws two horizontal lines on chart:
  • Blue line: High Barrier
  • Red line: Low Barrier
• Verify visually: Does this range match your strategy?
• Check range width: High Barrier - Low Barrier = Total Range

Step 5: Set Duration and Stake

• Choose expiry: Time-based (5 min, 15 min, 30 min, 1 hour)
• Enter stake amount (e.g., $10)
• Platform displays:
  • Exact High Barrier price
  • Exact Low Barrier price
  • Ends Between payout %
  • Ends Outside payout % (inverse relationship)

Step 6: Choose Contract Direction

• Click "Buy Ends Between" (betting price ends inside range)
• OR
• Click "Buy Ends Outside" (betting price ends outside range)

Step 7: Monitor and Wait

• Trade appears in "Portfolio" tab
• Price can cross barriers during trade (this is OK!)
• Only the final tick (Exit Spot) determines outcome
• At expiration, platform automatically settles

The "End-of-Session Mean Reversion" Strategy (Ends Between):

Objective: Exploit end-of-session volatility drop and mean reversion tendency.

Setup:

• Time: 4:45 PM EST (15 minutes before NY close at 5:00 PM)
• Asset: Volatility 75 Index
• Current Price: 45,250
• Market Condition: Volatile day, price ranged 44,500-46,000, currently mid-range
• Analysis: End-of-session traders close positions, volatility drops, price reverts to mean

Execution:

1. Contract: Ends Between
2. High Barrier offset: +750 (Barrier at 46,000)
3. Low Barrier offset: -750 (Barrier at 44,500)
4. Range width: 1,500 points (encompasses day's range)
5. Duration: 15 minutes (expires at 5:00 PM, exactly at close)
6. Stake: $15 (1.5% of $1,000 account)
7. Payout: 62% ($24.30 return, $9.30 profit)

Logic:

• Session close creates natural consolidation (traders flatten positions)
• Range encompasses full day's movement with small buffer
• 15-minute duration aligned with natural session-close timeline
• Medium-wide range (1,500 points) provides safety buffer
• Implied probability: 1 / 1.62 = 61.7% (market calculates 62% win rate)
• Your edge: Historical data shows 72% of session closes end within day's range on Volatility 75

Risk Management:

• Only use during confirmed session-close windows
• Skip if major news scheduled after close
• Maximum 1-2% account risk
• Stop strategy after 2 consecutive losses (market behaving abnormally)

Expected Outcome:

• Win Scenario: Price settles anywhere between 44,500-46,000 (most likely 44,800-45,700)
• Loss Scenario: Late spike beyond range (rare at session close)
• Long-term: 72% win rate at 62% payout = +7.6% edge per trade

Objective: Experience how path-independence works and understand that only Exit Spot matters.

Instructions:

1. Switch to Demo Account on Deriv platform
2. Select Volatility 75 Index
3. Place Ends Between Trade:
   • High Barrier: +300 points
   • Low Barrier: -300 points
   • Duration: 5 minutes
   • Stake: $10
   • Note the payout % (likely 80-95%)
4. Observe During Trade:
   • Watch the price touch or cross your High or Low Barrier mid-trade
   • Notice: The contract remains active (does NOT instantly settle)
   • Price can move back inside the range
5. At Expiration:
   • Platform checks ONLY the final tick (Exit Spot)
   • If Exit Spot is inside range: Win (even if price touched barriers mid-trade)
   • If Exit Spot is outside range: Loss

Reflect:

• If the price had stayed outside the barriers for 4 minutes, then moved back inside in the last second, would the Ends Between contract have won or lost?
  • Answer: Won! Only Exit Spot matters.
• This is why Ends Between is forgiving of mid-trade volatility spikes

Key Lesson: Expiry-only settlement is forgiving. Do not panic when price touches barriers mid-trade. Trust your expiry analysis, not mid-trade price action.