12 Apr

GBP upside capped ahead of Unemployment Rate & Carney

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  • GBP - BOE Governor Carney Speaks @ 01:30 pm
  • GBP - Average Earnings Index 3 m/y @ 02:00 pm
  • GBP - Claimant Count Change @ 02:00 pm
  • GBP - Unemployment Rate @ 02.00 pm
  • USD - President Trump Speech @ 03:30 pm
  • CAD - BOC Monetary Policy Report @ 07:30 pm
  • CAD - BOC Rate Statement @ 07:30 pm
  • CAD - Overnight Rate @ 07:30 pm
  • CAD - BOC Press Conference @ 08.45 pm
*All Timings are in Indian Standard Time only GMT+05.30
UK’s Labor Market Data
UK labor statistics for the 3 months finishing in February will be the most significant economic release for the day.  The market anticipate the unemployment rate to hold at its multi-decade low of 4.7 percent, but wage increase is likely to slow down, with caption wage growth slowing to 2.1 percent 3m/y consensus of 2.2 percent & the more significant ex-bonus private sector wage growth declining from 2.6 percent 3m/y to 2.2 percent 3m/y. Governor Carney gives a speech at 01:30 pm, but the topic is FinTech so he is improbable to remarks on monetary policy.
The combination of superior inflation & slower wage increase means real wage development is turning negative, implying fewer scopes for private consumption growth. This is the reason why we anticipate UK GDP growth to slow this year. Certainly, we have seen the 1st signs that this is actually happening. In fresh months, retail sales have plunged the mainly since the financial crisis & although it is a pathetic indicator, it is an indication that private consumption growth has really slowed.
CAD – BOC in Focus 
Market seems to have largely unobserved subdued US dollar price-action, with an unassuming rise in the US 2-yr Treasury bond yield punctual some short-covering before the key Bank of Canada-BOC monetary policy decision, & subsequent presser, later on the US session.
Bank of Canada-BOC is widely probable to leave its benchmark interest rate untouched at 0.5 percent. Investors, still, would be intense to see the central bank's assessment of the economic circumstances. Against the surroundings of recent slew of positive Canadian economic numbers, which has been signifying that the economy is building momentum, any indication towards a previous-than-expected rate-hike action should turn out to be extremely supportive for the Canadian Dollar & pave means for additional short-term depreciating move for the key.
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