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07 Nov

Weekly Forex Technical Analysis on 7-11th November 2016

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Weekly Technical Forecast on 7 -11th November 2016

Technical Pair’s for this week: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, & USDJPY.
EURUSD
 
EURUSD handled to recover as starting November. Updated EU forecasts and few German data stand out, as US people go to the polls. Uncertainty is going to be high. Euro-zone inflation remains hushed. Despite a boost in the headline CPI, core inflation did not bend, causing a trouble for the ECB. GDP growth was average as 0.3 percent, but also lost to excite. In the US, the FED and the NFP had their word before the elections. Clinton stays in the lead, albeit a narrower one, due to the FBI Effect. The US Non-Farm Payrolls were quite positive, with the huge gain in wages since 2009, but markets focal point on the elections.
 
The fundamentals sustain pointing to the downside, as the ECB place to add easing although the FED is on course to raise rates this year-end. One factor that can crash a hike is a victory for Donald Trump. Such an event might also be dollar-positive, on safe haven flows that will benefit the greenback. Over- all, it’s a win-win week for the greenback. EURUSD outlook remains BEARISH.

GBPUSD
 
GBPUSD appreciate its best week since last February, as the pair fell 300 points. The pair finished just above the 1.25 level. There are 8 key events on the schedule this week. The BoE revised upwards its expectations for economic growth, essentially acknowledging that its previous forecasts of Brexit were too long of pessimistic. The BoE also held interest rates at 0.25 percent, helping fuel the pound’s surge. US Non-Farm Payroll was positive and wage gain improving to 0.3 percent, above the forecast of 0.2 percent. The Fed refrained from raising rates earlier week, but the policy statement was little bit hawkish, as the Fed gave the economy a strong report card. 
 
The pair unlocked the week at 1.2205 levels and rapidly reached a low of 1.2143 levels, as support held firm at 1.2130 levels. The pair then changed its directions and mounted sharply, reaching a high of 1.2557 levels. GBPUSD ended the week at 1.2513 levels. The US economy sustains to drive in the right direction, buoyed a very solid labor market. The Fed is expected to raise rates this December, which bullish tone for the dollar. At the mean time, the UK economy has managed post-Brexit better than forecast, and the BoE might be adepts to avoid additional rate cut if the economy remains steady. GBPUSD outlook remains NEUTRAL.
 
AUDUSD
 
AUDUSD gained 60 points previous week, as the pair finished at the 0.7660 levels. There are 8news this week on the calendar. US job figures were strong last week. Non-Farm Payroll was positive and wage growth improving to 0.3 percent, above the forecast of 0.2 percent. The Fed refrained from raising rates earlier week, but the policy statement was little bit hawkish, as the Fed gave a thumbs-up to the economy, noting that inflation was heading closer to the Fed inflation target of 2.0 percent. As expected, the RBA handled rates at 1.50 percent. 
 
The pair opened the week at 0.7595 levels and rapidly touched a low of 0.7582 levels. The pair then changed its directions and mounted to a high of 0.7697 levels, testing resistance at 0.7691 levels. AUDUSD ended the week at 0.7661 levels. The US economy sustains to move in the right direction, buoyed a very solid labor market. With the Fed expected to raise rates this December, market sentiment is clear towards the US dollar. AUDUSD outlook remains BEARISH.
 
USDJPY
 
USDJPY dropped 150 points previous week, as the pair ended just above the 103 line. There are 14 events this week. The Fed refrained from raising rates earlier week, but the policy statement was little bit hawkish, as the Fed gave the economy a strong report card. US Non-Farm Payrolls were positive and wage growth improving to 0.3 percent, above the estimate of 0.2 percent. The BoJ stood pat and kept rates at -0.10 percent. 
 
The pair unlocked the week at 104.57 levels and reached a high of 105.23 levels. Then reversed directions and reached a low of 102.54 levels, testing support levels at 102.74 mentioned last week. The pair finished the week at 103.07 levels. The US economy continues to look strong, although the Japanese economy sustains to struggle with deflation and weak consumer growth. With the Fed anticipated raising rates this December, monetary divergence constant to favor the US dollar. USDJPY outlook remains BULLISH.
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